FMCSA's April authority-revocation print landed this morning: 9,847 single-truck and small-fleet authorities (2-5 power units) were revoked in April, up 38% MoM and the highest single-month figure since November 2024. The same cohort represents roughly 31% of all active for-hire trucking capacity by power-unit count. When this layer of the carrier pyramid contracts, the spot market tightens before contract rates feel it — and the OTRI print at 6.31% is already telling that story.

Three forces are stacking on small fleets at the same time. Insurance — Markel and Falcon's mid-cycle premium adjustments following Wednesday's Garza v. Coyote ruling will hit any broker contingent auto policy holder at renewal, but the cost flows downhill to the small carriers brokers vet. Several mid-sized brokers we spoke with this week have already started declining carriers whose primary auto policy limits sit at $750K — the new informal floor is $1M. Fuel — even with diesel at $3.69 nationally, the surcharge pass-through for small fleets running on weekly settlements is structurally tighter than for asset-based carriers on contract; small operators are absorbing more of the rate volatility. 2027 emissions — the rolling decision about whether to buy out an aging tractor or run it through is breaking toward exit for owner-operators who don't have the balance sheet to spec a 2027-compliant replacement.