Q3 RFP Season Opens With the First Real Carrier Pricing Power Since 2022 — Shippers See 6-9% Asks Across the Board.
Mega-carriers are tendering Q3 bids at 6-9% increases on incumbent contracts. Werner, Schneider and Knight-Swift have all signaled the same number on shipper calls. Three years of shipper-side rate compression are ending — and the procurement playbook that won 2024 is the wrong one for 2026.
The first wave of Q3 2026 RFP responses landed at major shippers this week, and the read from the four procurement teams we spoke with is unambiguous: this is the first round in three years where mega-carriers are tendering at increases instead of holding for renewal. The number cluster is tight — Werner, Schneider, Knight-Swift and US Xpress are all pricing somewhere in the 6-9% range on incumbent contracts, with the highest asks concentrated on Texas outbound, Southeast reefer, and any cross-border lane.
The market context behind it is the part shippers have been ignoring through the soft cycle. Class 8 tractor orders printed at 18,420 units for April — the eighth straight monthly decline and the lowest April print since 2020. ACT Research is forecasting net fleet capacity flat to down through 2027 even on optimistic demand assumptions. The carriers reading those forecasts are pricing their contracted books to lock in margin now while shippers still believe the post-2022 buyer's market is the default state of the world.