Outbound dry van rates from McAllen broke $2.40/mile on the spot market this week — a level not seen since June 2024 — as the back half of South Texas produce season pulls capacity south faster than contract carriers can replenish it.

The pattern is textbook. Volumes from the Rio Grande Valley have run ahead of the five-year average since the second week of April, and the lanes shippers usually stack with contract trucks (Laredo → Atlanta, McAllen → Chicago, Pharr → Dallas) are clearing 1,200–1,400 loads a day on DAT. Outbound tender rejections in McAllen sit at 18.4% — the highest in any major market east of the Sierras.

Brokers we spoke with this week describe a rotation that's becoming visible in the data: contract carriers pulling assets off RFP-priced lanes to chase a spot premium that's now north of $0.40/mile in some corridors. Two of the three largest van mega-fleets confirmed (off the record) that they've quietly raised mileage minimums on Texas tenders for May.

What it means for shippers

If your produce season exposure is in the bid book, you've already taken the hit. The carriers that committed to your contract rate three months ago are the ones being approached now to break it. Watch your tender acceptance numbers in McAllen, Pharr and Salinas this week — every percentage point of slippage there is a signal of what your June rates are going to look like.

If you're a broker, the call is to stop quoting Texas like it's still March. Re-quote outbound TX every Monday. Your customers will absorb a $200 increase if you tell them on Monday. They will replace you if you tell them on Friday.

The Numbers

• DAT National Van Spot: $2.18/mi (▲ +$0.04 DoD, +$0.21 MoM)
• McAllen outbound: $2.41/mi (▲ +$0.18 WoW)
• Outbound Tender Reject Index, McAllen: 18.4%
• Load-to-truck ratio, dry van national: 5.2 (highest since June '24)

Off Ramp will publish a deeper Texas produce read on Friday's edition. Premium subscribers receive the lane-level breakout via the Data Room at 04:00 ET.