Steel Coil Flatbed Holds at $2.74/mi Despite Mill Cuts — The Bifurcated Capacity Story Inside Open-Deck.
Two distinct flatbed markets are now pricing on different curves. Project freight (step-deck, Conestoga, RGN) is tight and rising. Standard 48-ft flatbed is soft and falling. Steel coil from Birmingham holds against mill output cuts. Understanding the split is the only way to bid open-deck capacity into Q3.
Birmingham → Houston steel coil at $2.74/mi has held flat for four straight weeks, despite Nucor and Steel Dynamics both signaling mill output cuts of 8-11% into Q3 on their April earnings calls. That coil rate doesn't make sense if you read flatbed as a single capacity bucket — soft mill demand should crush the lane. It makes complete sense if you read flatbed as two distinct capacity markets pricing on different curves.
Project freight is tight. Step-deck on Houston → Lubbock at $3.42/mi (up 6.4% WoW per the wind-blade piece we ran yesterday), Conestoga capacity booked into August across three heavy-haul carriers, and Texas DOT permit lead times stretched to 17 days. The capacity exiting standard flatbed is moving to specialized — operators with the equipment and the broker relationships to win permit-corridor freight at premium rates aren't taking $2.50 hot-band coil loads from Birmingham anymore.